In September the county had the most homes for sale, and the highest September median sale price, of any year since at least 2022. With mortgage rates back above 7%, here is what's driving that and what it means if you plan to buy or sell in southeast Oakland County this fall.
By BIG Real Estate · Data through September 2026 (mortgage rates through October 22, 2026)
Buyers in Oakland County have noticed more For Sale signs this fall, and they're right. According to Realcomp's September 2026 market report, the county had 4,084 homes and condos for sale at the end of September. That's 25.4% more than a year earlier and the highest September total in the report's five-year table.
The usual explanation would be that owners are rushing to sell. The data don't support it. The supply of new listings hasn't really changed. What has changed is how fast homes sell. That difference shapes how sellers should price and how hard buyers can negotiate.
What the September numbers show
Realcomp runs the multiple listing service most southeast Michigan agents use. Its figures for Oakland County, residential and condo combined, September 2026 compared with September 2025:
- Closed sales: 1,349, down 4.3% from 1,410
- Pending sales (new contracts): 1,213, down 8.0% from 1,318
- Median sale price: $383,500, up 2.3% from $375,000
- Homes for sale (inventory): 4,084, up 25.4% from 3,256
Inventory is at its highest September level in five years, and so is the median sale price. Fewer homes are selling, yet the typical sold home costs more. Those facts fit together once you look at where the extra inventory comes from.
The supply of sellers hasn't grown. Sales have slowed.
Inventory grows in two ways: more homes come on the market, or fewer leave it because they sell. Realtor.com's county-level listing data, published through the St. Louis Fed's FRED database, separates the two:
- New listings in Oakland County were 1,654 in September 2026, compared with 1,650 a year earlier. That's essentially unchanged.
- Active listings were 3,578, up 24.0% from 2,886.
- Pending listings (homes under contract) fell 7.2% to 1,597 from 1,721. That decline closely matches Realcomp's separately reported 8.0% drop in pending sales.
- Median days on market rose to 39 from 37.
The same number of owners listed their homes as last year, but fewer buyers signed contracts, so unsold homes built up. Realtor.com and Realcomp count listings differently (3,578 versus 4,084 homes for sale), so their totals shouldn't be compared directly. Both, though, show the same direction.
Timing points the same way. In a Realcomp-based brokerage report from Real Estate One, Oakland County single-family closed sales were up 3% for the year through August, with new listings flat. The slowdown is recent. It shows up in late-summer contracts and September closings, the same period in which mortgage rates climbed.
Rates are the most likely reason
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% for the week of October 22. A year earlier it was 6.19%, and in late February it was 5.98%, the low for 2026. Monthly averages have risen every month since February: about 6.5% in June, 6.9% in September and roughly 7.35% so far in October. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75%–4.00%, citing inflation that "remains elevated." Its next meeting is October 27–28.
Here is what that does to a monthly payment. These are our calculations for principal and interest only on a 30-year loan with 20% down. They leave out taxes, insurance and any mortgage insurance.
- September 2025 median at the 2025 rate ($375,000 at 6.19%): about $1,835 a month
- September 2026 median at the 2025 rate ($383,500 at 6.19%): about $1,877 a month
- September 2026 median at today's rate ($383,500 at 7.32%): about $2,108 a month
The higher price alone adds about $42 a month. The higher rate adds about $231 more. Put another way, a buyer whose budget topped out at last year's payment of about $1,835 can now afford roughly $334,000 instead of $375,000. When that happens to thousands of households, contracts slow, and that is what the pending-sales figures show. Rates are probably not the only factor; Oakland County's unemployment rate was 4.7% in August, up from 3.7% a year earlier. But rates are the variable that changed most this year.
The national picture is similar. Redfin reported on October 22 that U.S. pending sales in the four weeks ending October 18 were down 14.4% from a year earlier, the lowest in its records going back to 2021, while new listings fell 2.7%.
Why the median price still went up
If sales are slowing, why did the median sale price set a five-year September high? The median describes which homes sold, not how a given home's value changed.
Two signs suggest a change in mix rather than broad appreciation:
- The middle and upper ranges are doing better than the low end. In the Real Estate One report, Oakland single-family closed sales through August were up 11% above $800,000 and up 4% between $300,000 and $800,000, but down 4% below $300,000. When more of the homes that sell are higher-priced, the median goes up even if no individual home gains value.
- Asking prices per square foot are flat. Realtor.com's median list price in Oakland fell 7.0% from a year earlier to $400,000, but the median list price per square foot was $230, against $229 a year ago. The lower median asking price mostly reflects which homes are listed, not across-the-board cuts.
That doesn't mean sellers are holding firm. Realtor.com counted 1,504 Oakland listings with a price reduction in September, up 32.6% from a year earlier, or 42% of all active listings.
Is this a buyer's market?
Not across the board yet, but it's moving that way. Measures to watch:
- Supply. Inventory divided by monthly closed sales, a rough measure of months of supply, rose to about 3.0 from 2.3 a year ago. That's still below the 4 to 5 months Redfin describes as balanced. Realcomp put its whole MLS at 3.4 months in September.
- Buyer-seller balance. Redfin estimated that in the Warren–Troy–Farmington Hills metro division, which includes Oakland County, sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1% in September, up from 27.3% in August. Redfin calls a gap above 10% a buyer's market. This is a modeled estimate, not a count.
- Price cuts and time on market. Both are rising.
- Sale-to-list price. Across Realcomp's whole MLS, sellers received 98.3% of their last list price in September. That is still close to asking. Realcomp's summary report doesn't give an Oakland-only figure.
Conditions also vary by town and price range. The countywide numbers can't tell you how a particular street in Royal Oak or a price range in Troy is doing. That takes recent comparable sales.
What this means for you
If you're selling this fall: The first two weeks matter more now. With 25% more competing listings and contracts slowing, a home priced above recent comparable sales is more likely to sit, get cut, and sell for less than a home priced right at the start. Price from closed sales, not from neighbors' asking prices. Fix the things buyers can see. Decide in advance what you would do about price if there's no offer by a certain date.
If you're buying: You have more choice and more room to negotiate than at any point in recent years, especially on homes that have been listed a while or already had a price cut. Your purchasing power is lower, though, so get a current pre-approval at today's rates. Ask lenders about rate locks and what a temporary or permanent buydown would cost. If you plan to refinance later, treat that as a possibility, not a plan, because no one knows where rates will be.
If you're moving up: The two conditions partly cancel out. You'll probably have less pricing power when you sell and more negotiating room when you buy. The higher rate on your next loan is the biggest cost to figure out, so run the payment numbers on both homes before listing.
What we don't know yet
- October. Realcomp's October figures, expected in early November, will show whether September's slowdown continued as rates topped 7.3%.
- The Fed. The October 27–28 decision and the Fed's guidance could move mortgage rates either way. We don't forecast them.
- Seasonality versus trend. In Realtor.com's Oakland data, active listings usually peak between September and November and then drop sharply in December and January. If the year-over-year gap stays this wide through the winter, that would point to a lasting shift rather than the usual seasonal pattern.
- Local detail. County figures blend very different markets. The direction may not hold in every community or price range.
The takeaway
Oakland County's growing inventory doesn't mean owners are rushing to sell. It means buyers are slowing down as mortgage rates climb back above 7%. Prices haven't broken, and the higher median mostly reflects which homes are selling. But the advantage is moving toward buyers. Sellers who price from recent sales and buyers who are ready to act are best placed for the next few months.
This article is general market information, not financial, legal or mortgage advice. Talk with a lender about your own financing and a qualified professional about your situation. Figures are from the sources linked above, retrieved October 25, 2026. Realcomp data are residential and condo combined. Real Estate One figures are single-family and come from that brokerage's report based on Realcomp data.